It seems pharma has finally overcome the dreaded ‘patent cliff’ with a new report suggesting that global medicines spend will grow by $305-335bn for the five year period to the end of 2018.
This compares to the five-year period ending 2013 when the market grew by $219bn, affected by patent expiries for huge-selling medicines such as Pfizer’s cholesterol-lowering treatment Lipitor (atorvastatin) and Lilly’s antipsychotic Zyprexa (olanzapine).
With these major expiries out the way, and a growth in innovative personalised medicines and the continued rise of emerging markets, the Global Outlook for Medicines Through 2018 report, compiled by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, predicts a far healthier pharma market for the next few years.
Global medicines spend is set to increase by 30% to $1.3trn by 2018, according to the report, while 2014-15 is set to be a particularly strong year due to major new innovative launches, including Gilead Sciences’ Sovaldi (sofosbuvir), which is breaking records for its strong sales performance.
“The higher level of spending growth we’re projecting over the next five years reflects an unusual combination of higher spending on the surge of innovative medicines for patients and lower savings from patent expiries,” said Murray Aitken, executive director of the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics.
“This is particularly evident this year and next in developed countries—and especially in the US, which accounts for more than a third of the global market.”
2014 is set to be a breakthrough year for the industry, with absolute growth expected to hit $70bn. This compares to $44bn in 2013 and $26bn in 2012.
Further growth will be supported by emerging markets, which are predicted to see a 50% increase in spend over the next five years. According to IMS Health, this is due to broadening access to treatments as economies expand and government efforts to provide universal health coverage.
Leading the field is China, which is expected to see spending on medicines increase to $155-185bn by 2018.
Personalised medicines for specific variations of diseases will also provide a significant contribution to market growth, according to the report.
This will mainly come in developed countries where advances are being seen in oncology, autoimmune, respiratory, anti-virals and immunosuppressants therapy areas.