Total cumulative spending on COVID-19 vaccines is projected to reach $157bn by 2025, according to a new report from the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science.
The report, which considers the future level of global spending on medicines, also projected that the global medicine market – excluding COVID-19 vaccines – will reach approximately $1.6 trillion in 2025, reflecting a 3-6% growth.
It noted that even though short-term impact from COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 has been significant, its effect on long-term growth is ‘more muted’.
“While the pandemic has been extremely disruptive, the pre-pandemic forces of medicine use and spending remain significant drivers of the outlook, and these forces have only been modestly impacted by the immediate effects of COVID-19,” said Murray Aitken, senior vice president of IQVIA and executive director of the IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science.
“The success of countries around the world in implementing a global vaccination programme — unprecedented in speed and scope — will be key to the outlook for all medicine use through to 2025 and beyond,” he added.
With regards to COVID-19 vaccines, the report used a model reflecting suggestions from infectious disease experts that ‘herd immunity’ would be reached after more than 70% of a population have been vaccinated.
Taking this into account, as well as vaccinations to date, the global planned manufacturing capacity and rollout strategics and contracts, IQVIA created a base case estimate for the number of people who will be vaccinated each year.
The report also highlighted that the number of doses per patient is expected to change, particularly with regards to the transition to booster jabs following the initial wave of vaccinations.
“Because the effectiveness of current vaccines against new variants, as well as the duration of immunity, remains uncertain, it is expected that many people will need to receive new booster vaccinations in future years,” the report notes.
However, if the first wave of vaccinations fails to achieve herd immunity, the report suggests it is likely that ‘continued waves of infections and economic and health impacts’ will be seen in the future.
The report also forecast spending for global medicines, excluding COVID-19 vaccines, to be $68bn lower over six years to 2025, as a result of lower spending in the near term.
“Perhaps the largest uncertainty in the next five years will be the potential impact of economic factors on countries’ budgeting and whether there will be shifts in policies regarding healthcare and medicine spending,” added the report authors.