Please login to the form below

Black Swan Analysis

Formed in 2007, Black Swan Analysis is devoted exclusively to delivering high-quality data analysis, forecast modelling, and market research within the healthcare sector which generates insightful outputs that make business decisions clear for our clients.

Black Swan Analysis fosters a truly entrepreneurial environment every day. We are not afraid to challenge the status quo by turning a healthcare problem on its head to deliver the optimal solution for our clients. Our understanding of patient epidemiology, pharmaceutical forecasting and wealth of experience on the client side has been a true differentiator for us and an asset to both the company and our clients. It delivers that level of confidence to our client that ultimately translates into a quality output in every aspect of our service. Consistently delivering above our client’s expectations, this has solidified long-term relationships with many of our customers.

Access to our proprietary pricing and disease epidemiology databases, coupled with our commercial disease experience, makes us a valuable and ideal partner for any healthcare or pharmaceutical company looking to evaluate or commercialise their products.

Areas of Expertise

Breadth of Client Offering

Asset Valuations 
Black Swan Analysis is well positioned to help any organisation in the healthcare industry by accessing the potential value of their assets, whether it is a therapeutic, diagnostic or medical device solution, currently in development at any point across the clinical development cycle. This would be driven primarily by the eligible patients for the innovation, and will incorporate all the market and environmental factors.

Portfolio Analysis 
We have extensive experience advising companies on how to value and optimise their product portfolios across the different stages of clinical development. Leveraging our portfolio scorecard techniques for commercial and technical attractiveness, we have assisted a great number of healthcare clients in delivering a prioritized portfolio plan, releasing investment capital.

Dynamic Patient Forecasting 
We have a high level of experience and expertise in building market models and providing pharmaceutical forecasts for many companies across the globe, covering most aspects of product development.
 

Marketing Support 
We provide essential support to companies with growth ambitions requiring guidance on the optimisation of their product commercialisation. The range of services includes:


·        Qualitative and Quantitative Market Research and supporting analysis
·        Long Range Planning (1, 3 & 5 year) pharmaceutical forecasts and brand plans for in-market and new product launches
·        Review potential in-licensing and out-licensing opportunities in different franchises
·        Provide epidemiology and patient populations for a specific clinical indication for a region or country
·        Customer Journey Management and Measurement
·        Market Impact Tool that delivers different scenarios for brand planning and market access
·        Customer targeting & KOL mapping
·        War-gaming exercises  

Online Patient-based Databases 
Proprietary databases that include over 140 diseases with over 12,000 disease specific patient populations and >2 million product pricing data records delivered in a ‘user friendly’ format, allowing for a rapid analysis of the information. The geographic coverage for these databases includes the USA, Japan, Brazil and the 5 major markets in the EU. Over 24 other countries are available on request.


Patient-based Offering
·        EpiomicTM Patient Segmentation Database – overlays basic prevalence or incidence data with patient vital signs, pathophysiology and co-morbidities (www.epiomic.com)
·        EpiomicTM Hospital Admissions & Procedures Databases – captures the no. of patient hospitalisations and procedures performed per year by ICD code
·        EpiomicTM Patient Events & Outcomes Database – maps specific patient segments over time by event & patient outcome

Online Pricing Data & Platforms


Rx Price Index™ database 
–Online database capturing ex-factory prices for prescription medications across 28+ countries. Each product is presented with its brand and active substance name, form, strength, quantity and ex-manufacturing price. This information should enable the user to be able to calculate the cost by daily dose, strength or any other metric that they choose. (www.rxpriceindex.com

·        Oncology Dosing calculator –Online calculator linked to the Rx database to cost up oncology regimens in T7 Global Markets ·        Dynamic forecasting platforms - To provide a holistic understanding of a dynamic disease population and market conditions, we have developed a patient-based platform, OncoStrat TM, for autoimmune and oncology diseases. Our oncology flow platform has now been implemented across 7 markets & over 25 tumour types for clients.
   
Epiomic Epidemiology Series Reports 
In an effort to provide a more condensed version of our Epiomic Patient segmentation database for our clients, we have developed a new range of reports called the Epiomic Epidemiology Series. Each of these publications will be disease specific and will typically cover between 8-10 Major Global Markets with a forecasted horizon of 10 years. Each report will begin with some analyst insights about the disease or disorder which will look specifically at the patient population and provide some insight related to:

·       the cause of the disease 
·       risk factors and prevention
 
·       the diagnosis
 
·       variations by geography or ethnicity
·       key co morbid conditions associated with the disease 
·       disease prognosis and clinical course
 

The majority of the report will be presented in easy to understand data tables showing the patients prevalence by the specific country across a 10 year horizon period. Each report will have the overall top-line prevalence for the disease in each country along with a split by gender. To add a further level of detail, we have provided a breakdown of the prevalence or incidence population by gender in 5 year cohorts for each country in the report.  

A real benefit of using the Epiomic patient segmentation database as a source is its ability to look beyond just the prevalence and incidence rate of a disease, and show relevant sub-populations. These sub-populations could be either a key co-morbid condition or some other attributes that are important to understand when considering the current and future treatment or diagnostic pathway for a specific disease. All of these sub-populations have been displayed in a table format with each population segmented even further by country or other parameters related to the sub-population.  


These reports are built using data and information sourced from the proprietary Epiomic patient segmentation database. To generate accurate patient population estimates, the Epiomic database utilises a combination of several world class sources that deliver the most up to date information from patient registries, clinical trials and epidemiology studies. All of the sources used to generate the data and analysis have been identified in the report.
  

Over 50 Available Market Reports with many Rare Diseases included. Examples of some of the titles below: 
1.      Huntington’s Disease 
2.      Gaucher’s Disease 
3.      Retinal Vein Occlusion
4.      Cystic Fibrosis 
5.      Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy 
6.      Uveitis 
7.      Nocturia 
8.      Onychomycosis 
9.      Pulmonary hypertension 
10.   Wegener’s granulomatosis   
11.   Cerebral Palsy 
12.   Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus 
13.   Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis 
14.   Neuropathic pain 
15.   Autism Spectrum Disorder 
16.   Fabry Disease 
17.   Gout 
18.   Ovarian cancer 
19.   Dry Eye Syndrome 
20.   Endometriosis 
21.   Aortic Stenosis 
22.   Atrial Fibrillation 
23.   Anginia Pectoris 
24.   Prader Willi Syndrome
25.   Non-small Cell Lung Cancer 
26.   Symptomatic Vitreomacular adhesion 
27.   Frontotemporal Lobe Dementia 
28.   Peripheral Arterial Disease 
29.   Varicose Veins 
30.   Gallbladder Cancer   

For more information on the reports available or purchase options, follow the link belowhttp://blackswan-analysis.co.uk/solutions/epiomic-epidemiology-series/
 

White Papers and Resources

Portfolio Optimisation: Can you really compare Apples to Oranges?
When someone uses the expression "you're comparing apples to oranges" they're really saying "Why are you trying to compare those things? You can't compare apples to oranges; they're just not the same thing. On further analysis, you could say, “They're both round. They're both sweet. They're both fruit. They're both the same. But they're not.”
Forecasting in Forgotten Markets
In this article, Anthony Woodhead, Business Development Manager for Black Swan Analysis, discusses the challenges facing innovators in markets like Dementia, which has attracted significant investment over time but has delivered very little success. Could the recent surge in new investment concepts like crowdfunding be able to deliver the much need new sources of capital to these forgotten markets?
Forecasting in Dynamic Oncology Markets
Anthony Woodhead, Business Development Manager for Black Swan Analysis, highlights in this article the exciting changes impacting the Oncology market and the challenges that Healthcare companies will have to respond to these dynamic factors in a timely fashion in order to not be left behind.
Understanding the "Big Picture"
In this article, Nic Talbot-Watt, Director of Analysis and Forecasting at Black Swan Analysis, highlights the advantage of having a robust commercial understanding of their healthcare innovation early in the development process and the challenges and disappointment when you get it wrong.
Can rare diseases be a viable option for the pharma industry?
In this article, Christopher Ehinger questions whether rare diseases are a viable option for the pharma industry. He looks at the total number of approvals and orphan drug designations in the US since the Orphan Drug Act of 1983 and the factors driving pharma to invest its research and development budgets into discovering orphan drugs.
Enablers of drug innovation could lie in the numbers
Christopher Ehinger of Black Swan Analysis addresses the problem of clinical-trial recruitment as a barrier to new drug development and offers a new way of looking at the problem.

Latest Tweets

Facebook

Awards

Short-listed for the “Micro Business of the Year” category for the National Growing Business Awards – 2015 - Sponsored by Real Business and the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), this United Kingdom award recognises outstanding small companies of exceptional quality, who are punching above their weight in the world of business.     

Short-listed for the “Management Team of the Year” for the Thames Valley Business Awar
ds - 2015 - Sponsored by The Business Magazine and NatWest, this award recognises management teams who are located in the Thames Valley Berkshire that display a truly motivational, enlightened, innovative, and forward-thinking approach to their business.    
                       

BOBI Award Winner 2014-2015
- "Agency I would most like to work with"
May 2015

BOBI Award Winner 2014-2015 - The BOBI Team Challenge
May 2015

BOBI Award Finalist - Best Business Impact
May 2013

BOBI Award Finalist 2012-2013 - "Agency I would most like to work with"
May 2013


Testimonials

The majority of our business comes from clients with whom we have worked previously – a testament to our clients’ satisfaction and trust.

“A highly intelligent group, yet friendly and accessible. The whole team is professional and innovative and they produce excellent work. You can trust that they will do the job that is required, not necessarily just the job you tell them to do, to high standards, and as a business partner not just a supplier. Personal attention from the relevant people makes working with Black Swan not only rewarding but a pleasure.”
Global Pharmaceutical Company, Director of Business Intelligence

“I was really impressed by the work that Black Swan had produced for us. They quickly understood the complexity of the opportunity our product could deliver, carried out a thorough analysis and provided a clear valuation that put us in a strong position with prospective investors and shareholders. I would highly recommend them!”
Avid Radiopharmaceuticals, Vice-President Sales & Marketing

“Black Swan helped our company to not only map out the patient journey, but identified leverage points for change. It was a logical user-friendly model interface which utilised all available data sources. The success of the work is evident as 2 years post completion; it remains at the heart of our strategic thinking as well as our operational planning.”
Gilead Sciences, International Commercial Strategy

Company Details

Black Swan Analysis

+44 (0)1628 621 790

Contact Website

Address:
Moorbridge Court
29-41 Moorbridge Road
Maidenhead
Berkshire
SL6 8LT
UK

Latest content on this profile

Portfolio Optimisation: Can you really compare Apples to Oranges?
When someone uses the expression "you're comparing apples to oranges" they're really saying "Why are you trying to compare those things? You can't compare apples to oranges; they're just not the same thing. On further analysis, you could say, “They're both round. They're both sweet. They're both fruit. They're both the same. But they're not.”
Black Swan Analysis
Forecasting in Forgotten Markets
In this article, Anthony Woodhead, Business Development Manager for Black Swan Analysis, discusses the challenges facing innovators in markets like Dementia, which has attracted significant investment over time but has delivered very little success. Could the recent surge in new investment concepts like crowdfunding be able to deliver the much need new sources of capital to these forgotten markets?
Black Swan Analysis
Forecasting in Dynamic Oncology Markets
Anthony Woodhead, Business Development Manager for Black Swan Analysis, highlights in this article the exciting changes impacting the Oncology market and the challenges that Healthcare companies will have to respond to these dynamic factors in a timely fashion in order to not be left behind.
Black Swan Analysis
Understanding the "Big Picture"
In this article, Nic Talbot-Watt, Director of Analysis and Forecasting at Black Swan Analysis, highlights the advantage of having a robust commercial understanding of their healthcare innovation early in the development process and the challenges and disappointment when you get it wrong.
Black Swan Analysis
Can rare diseases be a viable option for the pharma industry?
In this article, Christopher Ehinger questions whether rare diseases are a viable option for the pharma industry. He looks at the total number of approvals and orphan drug designations in the US since the Orphan Drug Act of 1983 and the factors driving pharma to invest its research and development budgets into discovering orphan drugs.
Black Swan Analysis
Enablers of drug innovation could lie in the numbers
Christopher Ehinger of Black Swan Analysis addresses the problem of clinical-trial recruitment as a barrier to new drug development and offers a new way of looking at the problem.
Black Swan Analysis