IMS forecasts global pharma growth

IMS Health, a company that provides sales data and consulting services for the pharmaceutical industry, has reported an expected annual growth of 5 to 8 per cent in the global market for pharmaceuticals over the next five years.

The conclusion comes following the latest release of IMS Market Prognosis, the company's series of strategic market forecasting publications, with the market predicted to grow nearly $300bn over the next five years, reaching $1.1tn in 2014.

For 2010, it is predicted the global pharmaceutical market will have growth of 4 to 6 per cent, following 7.0 per cent growth in 2009 and 4.8 per cent growth in 2008. This is consistent with IMS' previous forecasts.

The report identified five key areas market dynamics that would affect industry growth:

• The continued influence of emerging markets, including China and India, with these markets expected to grow at a 14 - 17 per cent pace through 2014, with major developed markets expected to grow at 3 – 6 per cent
• Growth in therapy areas currently with unmet needs, as the pharmaceutical industry's R&D programmes develop in accordance with increased low-cost generic options for current leading products
• Publicly funded health systems under economic pressure to reduce growth in drug budgets, with Turkey, Spain, Germany and France already announcing plans to apply across-the-board restrictions on access or reductions in reimbursements to reduce drug spending growth
• Patent expiries on leading drugs at similar times (with six of the top 10 selling drugs in the US losing protection in the country between 2011 and 2012) will instigate generic dominance of major therapies. This shift to generics will reduce total drug spending by about $80 - $100bn worldwide throughout 2014
• More rigorous and complex assessment and regulation of new products will contribute to lower initial spending by payers and increase the time taken to launch products, though the number of  new molecular entities launched each year until 2014 is expected to remain within 30 to 35 products.

Murray Aitken, senior vice president of Healthcare Insight, and the man responsible for leading IMS' thought leadership initiatives worldwide, said: "Patient demand for pharmaceuticals will remain robust, despite the ongoing effects of the economic downturn being felt in many parts of the world.

"In developed markets with publicly funded healthcare plans, pressure by payers to curb drug spending growth will only intensify, but that will be more than offset by the ongoing, rapid expansion of demand in the pharmerging markets. Net growth over the next five years is expected to be strong - even as the industry faces the peak years of patent expiries for innovative drugs introduced 10 to 15 years ago and subsequent entry of lower-cost generic alternatives."

More information about the report can be found on IMS Health's website