Pharma firms should brace themselves for an estimated $65bn drop in sales by 2019 due to patent expiries on several leading drugs, according a new report.
Research and consulting company GlobalData says a significant proportion of losses will come from the central nervous system (CNS) treatment sector, with Otsuka, Eli Lilly and AstraZeneca (AZ) expected to be hit hard.
For Lilly and AZ it continues their sales declines in the area as their flagship brands continue to suffer.
GlobalData analyst Adam Dion said: “AZ, CNS segment has been bleeding sales as a result of the company losing its patent on Seroquel (quetiapine), a treatment for bipolar disorder. GlobalData estimates AZ’s share to have been around 9% in 2010, which has now fallen to only 3% in 2013.
“Eli Lilly’s market share declines from 14.3% in 2010 to 11.2% in 2013, primarily thanks to decreasing sales of Zyprexa (olanzapine). Zyprexa sales have plummeted from over $5bn to $1,2bn over the same period as a result of the drug losing its US patent exclusivity in 2011.”
Dion added that, although Otsuka’s anti-psychotic drug Abilify (aripiprazole) – co-owned with Bristol-Myers Squibb – was the sales leader in CNS, bringing in $9.5bn in 2013, the future of the drug is not so positive with its US patent expiration in 2015, leading to a potential loss of $6.2bn by 2019.
However, industry-wide the picture may be more positive. Research from IMS Health published last month predicted global medicines spending would grow by $305-335bn in the five years to the end of 2018.